Mike Augello: Leafs concentrating on goalie pursuit, Rielly extension not on front burner

😱

Carrying this from the last blog because (a) I put some time into putting together some numbers, and (b) because it should be something that is enlightening or illustrating our points.

I'm not bitter about Marner any more, that has passed... To me, it's all about cap space now.. How can they improve the team with less than $10M left in cap space? Dubas has said that they are looking at brining in 2 or 3 more forwards, a defenseman like Bogosian and a goalie to play with Campbell...

How do they add 5 valuable pieces with less than $10M in cap space..

Marner is a highly skilled, offensively gifted and dynamic player that can change a game, but to me, to address 5 needs (assuming Dubas is telling the truth) they can't do it.. Not unless they move out one of the big 4.
- PatC80

Ok. Well, first off let me say this is NOT me being a Richard or anything. I'm saying let's play that game. What do we trade Marner for? What can we get for him that someone is willing trade that we would want to take back? I'm ruling out Karlsson, Burns, Doughty, Josi, Subban, Makar, Jones, Pietrangelo, Heiskanen, Carlson, Hedman, Weber, Dahlin, Ekblad and Chabot because they are either too old or their teams value them too much or they are divisional rivals. The young-ish guys that come to mind are Byram or Chychrun, and I'm fairly certain neither Colorado nor Arizona would want to take on Marner's cap hit or salary (even though it was front loaded, he still makes over $10m this year and $8m for the next 3 years).

So we trade Marner for some package of futures, but I don't see a deal for an elite top-level pairing that realistically exists.

?? - Matthews - ??
?? - Tavares - Nylander
Engvall - Kerfoot - Mikheyev
Spezza - Brooks - Simmonds

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren

Campbell
??

Now we have about $20m in space because we've traded Marner.

The market:

Hamilton: $9m
Landeskog $7.5m
Hoffman: $5m
Schwartz: $5m
Coleman: $4.5m
Danault: $4.5m
Saad: $4m
Palmieri: $4m
Martinez: $4m
Savard: $3.5m
Foligno: $3.5m
Granlund: $3m
Getzlaf: $2m
Bonino: $2.5m
Vatanen: $2m

Alot of the other guys probably in the $1.5 - $3m range . . .like Kahun, Nash, Hutton, Raffl, Dzingel, etc.


Binnington: $8m
Mrazek: $4.5m
Raanta: $4m
Halak: $3m
Bernier: $3m
Reimer: $3m

If I were to go first, I'd start by getting Hamilton and trading Rielly, so there's $16m in space left. Sign Mrazek, $11.5m in space left. Schwartz, Bonino and Granlund or Foligno? Is that a significantly better team? I don't know.

Schwartz - Matthews - Nylander
Granlund - Tavares - Kerfoot
Engvall - Bonino - Mikheyev
Spezza - Brooks - Simmonds

Hamilton - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren

Campbell
Mrazek

Trading Marner gives us flexibility, but I don't know what the flexibility gets us right now. Other than a new scapegoat.

Carrying this from the last blog because (a) I put some time into putting together some numbers, and (b) because it should be something that is enlightening or illustrating our points.



Ok. Well, first off let me say this is NOT me being a Richard or anything. I'm saying let's play that game. What do we trade Marner for? What can we get for him that someone is willing trade that we would want to take back? I'm ruling out Karlsson, Burns, Doughty, Josi, Subban, Makar, Jones, Pietrangelo, Heiskanen, Carlson, Hedman, Weber, Dahlin, Ekblad and Chabot because they are either too old or their teams value them too much or they are divisional rivals. The young-ish guys that come to mind are Byram or Chychrun, and I'm fairly certain neither Colorado nor Arizona would want to take on Marner's cap hit or salary (even though it was front loaded, he still makes over $10m this year and $8m for the next 3 years).

So we trade Marner for some package of futures, but I don't see a deal for an elite top-level pairing that realistically exists.

?? - Matthews - ??
?? - Tavares - Nylander
Engvall - Kerfoot - Mikheyev
Spezza - Brooks - Simmonds

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren

Campbell
??

Now we have about $20m in space because we've traded Marner.

The market:

Hamilton: $9m
Landeskog $7.5m
Hoffman: $5m
Schwartz: $5m
Coleman: $4.5m
Danault: $4.5m
Saad: $4m
Palmieri: $4m
Martinez: $4m
Savard: $3.5m
Foligno: $3.5m
Granlund: $3m
Getzlaf: $2m
Bonino: $2.5m
Vatanen: $2m

Alot of the other guys probably in the $1.5 - $3m range . . .like Kahun, Nash, Hutton, Raffl, Dzingel, etc.


Binnington: $8m
Mrazek: $4.5m
Raanta: $4m
Halak: $3m
Bernier: $3m
Reimer: $3m

If I were to go first, I'd start by getting Hamilton and trading Rielly, so there's $16m in space left. Sign Mrazek, $11.5m in space left. Schwartz, Bonino and Granlund or Foligno? Is that a significantly better team? I don't know.

Schwartz - Matthews - Nylander
Granlund - Tavares - Kerfoot
Engvall - Bonino - Mikheyev
Spezza - Brooks - Simmonds

Hamilton - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren

Campbell
Mrazek

Trading Marner gives us flexibility, but I don't know what the flexibility gets us right now. Other than a new scapegoat.
- Monkeypunk

This makes my head hurt. None of this will happen so why even speculate? They aren’t trading their best point producer.

New idea.

Split the three 11 million forwards onto three lines. Matthews gets Nylander.

They should each be able to carry their own line.

New idea.

Split the three 11 million forwards onto three lines. Matthews gets Nylander.

They should each be able to carry their own line.
- Leafs43

Marner on the 3rd line eh

Marner on the 3rd line eh
- TheMussel

I think the end result could end up being better.

Loading lines seems to have diminishing returns. I think Kessel used to rip apart teams on the third line in Pittsburgh because everyone was so focused on Crosby/Malkin.

Could be a similar situation. Spread out the most talented players and make teams deal with a constant barrage of talent rather than following up Matthews/Marner with Mikheyev/Engvall.

New idea.

Split the three 11 million forwards onto three lines. Matthews gets Nylander.

They should each be able to carry their own line.
- Leafs43

I'd just tell AM and MM that due to their salaries they can only have a linemate that makes 1.6M or less. Roll with it and make it work ...(frank)ers.

JT and Willie make a little less so they get 3M or less for their winger.

Then go spend your balance on a good third line.

I'd just tell AM and MM that due to their salaries they can only have a linemate that makes 1.6M or less. Roll with it and make it work ...(frank)ers.

JT and Willie make a little less so they get 3M or less for their winger.

Then go spend your balance on a good third line.
- The Law

I like it, internal salary cap per line

1st line 18 mil,

2nd line 16 mil

3rd line 14 mil

4th line 2.1 mil

This makes my head hurt. None of this will happen so why even speculate? They aren’t trading their best point producer.
- Tanooki

But this is the point: Right _now_ I don't see how trading Marner makes us better. It changes the look of the team, but I'm not sure what is available through trade or UFA that would significantly alter the composition and style of this team. It is an offensively styled team based on puck possession that lends itself to our best player's core skill - controlling the puck and shooting it with great accuracy. If you trade Mitch Marner with the thought of upgrading the defense, you're left with a Marner-sized hole up front that would likely impact our ability to control the pace of play and the game.

Marner, like all players, has holes in his game and problems that he's growing through. But I don't know if you can get rid of him and significantly alter the composition of the team.

I'd just tell AM and MM that due to their salaries they can only have a linemate that makes 1.6M or less. Roll with it and make it work ...(frank)ers.

JT and Willie make a little less so they get 3M or less for their winger.

Then go spend your balance on a good third line.
- The Law

Agree with this if Matthews/Marner stay together.

Line 1 should have a absolute max budget of 24 million. Matthews/Marner make 22.5 - so they can live with a 1.5 winger.

But this is the point: Right _now_ I don't see how trading Marner makes us better. It changes the look of the team, but I'm not sure what is available through trade or UFA that would significantly alter the composition and style of this team. It is an offensively styled team based on puck possession that lends itself to our best player's core skill - controlling the puck and shooting it with great accuracy. If you trade Mitch Marner with the thought of upgrading the defense, you're left with a Marner-sized hole up front that would likely impact our ability to control the pace of play and the game.

Marner, like all players, has holes in his game and problems that he's growing through. But I don't know if you can get rid of him and significantly alter the composition of the team.
- Monkeypunk

I like to always ask who is realistically being traded for Marner and why would the team do it? If Marner is that valuable why not just keep him?

Carrying this from the last blog because (a) I put some time into putting together some numbers, and (b) because it should be something that is enlightening or illustrating our points.



Ok. Well, first off let me say this is NOT me being a Richard or anything. I'm saying let's play that game. What do we trade Marner for? What can we get for him that someone is willing trade that we would want to take back? I'm ruling out Karlsson, Burns, Doughty, Josi, Subban, Makar, Jones, Pietrangelo, Heiskanen, Carlson, Hedman, Weber, Dahlin, Ekblad and Chabot because they are either too old or their teams value them too much or they are divisional rivals. The young-ish guys that come to mind are Byram or Chychrun, and I'm fairly certain neither Colorado nor Arizona would want to take on Marner's cap hit or salary (even though it was front loaded, he still makes over $10m this year and $8m for the next 3 years).

So we trade Marner for some package of futures, but I don't see a deal for an elite top-level pairing that realistically exists.

?? - Matthews - ??
?? - Tavares - Nylander
Engvall - Kerfoot - Mikheyev
Spezza - Brooks - Simmonds

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren

Campbell
??

Now we have about $20m in space because we've traded Marner.

The market:

Hamilton: $9m
Landeskog $7.5m
Hoffman: $5m
Schwartz: $5m
Coleman: $4.5m
Danault: $4.5m
Saad: $4m
Palmieri: $4m
Martinez: $4m
Savard: $3.5m
Foligno: $3.5m
Granlund: $3m
Getzlaf: $2m
Bonino: $2.5m
Vatanen: $2m

Alot of the other guys probably in the $1.5 - $3m range . . .like Kahun, Nash, Hutton, Raffl, Dzingel, etc.


Binnington: $8m
Mrazek: $4.5m
Raanta: $4m
Halak: $3m
Bernier: $3m
Reimer: $3m

If I were to go first, I'd start by getting Hamilton and trading Rielly, so there's $16m in space left. Sign Mrazek, $11.5m in space left. Schwartz, Bonino and Granlund or Foligno? Is that a significantly better team? I don't know.

Schwartz - Matthews - Nylander
Granlund - Tavares - Kerfoot
Engvall - Bonino - Mikheyev
Spezza - Brooks - Simmonds

Hamilton - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren

Campbell
Mrazek

Trading Marner gives us flexibility, but I don't know what the flexibility gets us right now. Other than a new scapegoat.
- Monkeypunk

I get that, and I don't think you're being a Richard.. Trading Marner, (I don't think it will happen) will give them enough room to try different things.. The list of options opens up and they can make improvements elsewhere..

Next off-season, if the Leafs fail to get past the 1st round or fail make the playoffs, how do you justify keeping the big 4 in tact?

Carrying this from the last blog because (a) I put some time into putting together some numbers, and (b) because it should be something that is enlightening or illustrating our points.



Ok. Well, first off let me say this is NOT me being a Richard or anything. I'm saying let's play that game. What do we trade Marner for? What can we get for him that someone is willing trade that we would want to take back? I'm ruling out Karlsson, Burns, Doughty, Josi, Subban, Makar, Jones, Pietrangelo, Heiskanen, Carlson, Hedman, Weber, Dahlin, Ekblad and Chabot because they are either too old or their teams value them too much or they are divisional rivals. The young-ish guys that come to mind are Byram or Chychrun, and I'm fairly certain neither Colorado nor Arizona would want to take on Marner's cap hit or salary (even though it was front loaded, he still makes over $10m this year and $8m for the next 3 years).

So we trade Marner for some package of futures, but I don't see a deal for an elite top-level pairing that realistically exists.

?? - Matthews - ??
?? - Tavares - Nylander
Engvall - Kerfoot - Mikheyev
Spezza - Brooks - Simmonds

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren

Campbell
??

Now we have about $20m in space because we've traded Marner.

The market:

Hamilton: $9m
Landeskog $7.5m
Hoffman: $5m
Schwartz: $5m
Coleman: $4.5m
Danault: $4.5m
Saad: $4m
Palmieri: $4m
Martinez: $4m
Savard: $3.5m
Foligno: $3.5m
Granlund: $3m
Getzlaf: $2m
Bonino: $2.5m
Vatanen: $2m

Alot of the other guys probably in the $1.5 - $3m range . . .like Kahun, Nash, Hutton, Raffl, Dzingel, etc.


Binnington: $8m
Mrazek: $4.5m
Raanta: $4m
Halak: $3m
Bernier: $3m
Reimer: $3m

If I were to go first, I'd start by getting Hamilton and trading Rielly, so there's $16m in space left. Sign Mrazek, $11.5m in space left. Schwartz, Bonino and Granlund or Foligno? Is that a significantly better team? I don't know.

Schwartz - Matthews - Nylander
Granlund - Tavares - Kerfoot
Engvall - Bonino - Mikheyev
Spezza - Brooks - Simmonds

Hamilton - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren

Campbell
Mrazek

Trading Marner gives us flexibility, but I don't know what the flexibility gets us right now. Other than a new scapegoat.
- Monkeypunk

Holy fück. That’s a lot of work for stuff that will never happen

I like to always ask who is realistically being traded for Marner and why would the team do it? If Marner is that valuable why not just keep him?
- Aaron_85

It's the Jones for Johansen trade that fuels this. Who needs a top-5 scoring winger? Most teams. Who can handle an $11m cap hit in said winger? Few teams. Who has an elite defenseman that comes in under $11m that they want to trade for an elite $11m winger because they need offense and don't need the most coveted piece in the league: a #1 Franchise RHD?

The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind - because it's no one.

So you fill with different pieces. Can you, by Marner's subtraction, build a roster that supplements 70% of his goals created while reducing the goals against by a complimentary 30%? Seems unlikely - but it would make the team deeper. Could it make the team harder to play against and give them more opportunities for success in the playoffs? That's where the question lies. I really don't know the answer, but with the cards I see available to play with, I don't think so.

Carrying this from the last blog because (a) I put some time into putting together some numbers, and (b) because it should be something that is enlightening or illustrating our points.



Ok. Well, first off let me say this is NOT me being a Richard or anything. I'm saying let's play that game. What do we trade Marner for? What can we get for him that someone is willing trade that we would want to take back? I'm ruling out Karlsson, Burns, Doughty, Josi, Subban, Makar, Jones, Pietrangelo, Heiskanen, Carlson, Hedman, Weber, Dahlin, Ekblad and Chabot because they are either too old or their teams value them too much or they are divisional rivals. The young-ish guys that come to mind are Byram or Chychrun, and I'm fairly certain neither Colorado nor Arizona would want to take on Marner's cap hit or salary (even though it was front loaded, he still makes over $10m this year and $8m for the next 3 years).

So we trade Marner for some package of futures, but I don't see a deal for an elite top-level pairing that realistically exists.

?? - Matthews - ??
?? - Tavares - Nylander
Engvall - Kerfoot - Mikheyev
Spezza - Brooks - Simmonds

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren

Campbell
??

Now we have about $20m in space because we've traded Marner.

The market:

Hamilton: $9m
Landeskog $7.5m
Hoffman: $5m
Schwartz: $5m
Coleman: $4.5m
Danault: $4.5m
Saad: $4m
Palmieri: $4m
Martinez: $4m
Savard: $3.5m
Foligno: $3.5m
Granlund: $3m
Getzlaf: $2m
Bonino: $2.5m
Vatanen: $2m

Alot of the other guys probably in the $1.5 - $3m range . . .like Kahun, Nash, Hutton, Raffl, Dzingel, etc.


Binnington: $8m
Mrazek: $4.5m
Raanta: $4m
Halak: $3m
Bernier: $3m
Reimer: $3m

If I were to go first, I'd start by getting Hamilton and trading Rielly, so there's $16m in space left. Sign Mrazek, $11.5m in space left. Schwartz, Bonino and Granlund or Foligno? Is that a significantly better team? I don't know.

Schwartz - Matthews - Nylander
Granlund - Tavares - Kerfoot
Engvall - Bonino - Mikheyev
Spezza - Brooks - Simmonds

Hamilton - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren

Campbell
Mrazek

Trading Marner gives us flexibility, but I don't know what the flexibility gets us right now. Other than a new scapegoat.
- Monkeypunk

Stop thinking things through so thoroughly and just let the Marner butthurt flow through you.

Holy fück. That’s a lot of work for stuff that will never happen

- .HOHO.

My boss and his boss are away today and so is the lead PM. I have stuff I should probably do, but no one is going to pester me to do it. Or in short: I have time.

I just wish we were able to overpay Sam Bennett like Florida did

I just wish we were able to overpay Sam Bennett like Florida did
- Archaic

Jesus.

Just shows that you can get a pretty decent contract if you perform well for 10 regular season games + 5 playoff games.

Stopped after Carrying over......

I like to always ask who is realistically being traded for Marner and why would the team do it? If Marner is that valuable why not just keep him?
- Aaron_85

In a flat cap, $20M in space is an advantage.. The Leafs would be able to go after multiple players to fix their bottom 6, any potential goaltending concerns and bring in a decent defenseman, if Liljegren shows he is not ready yet.

Marner is a great player, and is highly skilled but it's a flat cap.

Keep Marner and sign a bunch of players to 1 yr/$900k deals and hope it works out this time, or move Marner and address bigger issues like the 3rd line, like a goalie to play with Campbell.. Like a physical defenseman to clear the net..

I know it won't happen, but trading him will open up a lot of options for the Leafs.

This makes my head hurt. None of this will happen so why even speculate? They aren’t trading their best point producer.
- Tanooki

They should, if they want to have a team that has any kind of semblance of balance. But yes, you are correct: Mitch Marner isn't going anywhere under Dubas' watch.

I'd just tell AM and MM that due to their salaries they can only have a linemate that makes 1.6M or less. Roll with it and make it work ...(frank)ers.

JT and Willie make a little less so they get 3M or less for their winger.

Then go spend your balance on a good third line.
- The Law

I approve of this approach.

I get that, and I don't think you're being a Richard.. Trading Marner, (I don't think it will happen) will give them enough room to try different things.. The list of options opens up and they can make improvements elsewhere..

Next off-season, if the Leafs fail to get past the 1st round or fail make the playoffs, how do you justify keeping the big 4 in tact?
- PatC80

The answer to that comes with opportunity, I'd think. Right _now_, I'd already be listening. Draft picks and prospects are not where Toronto wants to be right now, so you have to in on the conversations for guys like Jones, but then you have to know your valuation of them vs. their valuation of him. I mean Jones looks a lot like he peaked at 23 - each successive year has been worse than the previous year. I very much want to believe that he'll be fine and return to form with a change of scenery, but that remains to be seen!

But if a team that projected themselves to be a contender falters and the opportunity is there, maybe you seize it. I just wouldn't trade Marner simply to be rid of him. The first thing I'd be doing is trying to convince Tavares that he wants to waive and then talking to Ken Holland, because Tavares is almost old enough to interest him.

If this team fails to make the playoffs there will be mass firings and culture change and significant trades. If this team fails to leave the first round, it probably amounts to the same as not making the playoffs.

Agree with this if Matthews/Marner stay together.

Line 1 should have a absolute max budget of 24 million. Matthews/Marner make 22.5 - so they can live with a 1.5 winger.
- Leafs43

Ya, here's Mikky - make it work!

JT and WN here's Kerfoot - make it work!

You slot both of them in there and you get to fill out a decent 3rd line.